Justin Jefferson is entering the 2024 season as a much richer man than the one who left the 2023 season. With bigger money comes a bigger spotlight. As such, fans and analysts are hungry to learn whether the Minnesota Vikings‘ top star will keep up his end of the bargain.
Going out on a limb one way or another is dangerous, but here are three bold predictions for Jefferson this season.
Justin Jefferson will make a run at leading the NFL in receiving yards
First, Jefferson will have a run at leading the league in receiving yards. Fully healthy this season, Jefferson will dominate defenses as well as he always has.
The race will come down to between Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill. However, Jefferson will not finish the year in first place (more on that later).
To estimate his end-year total, he will hover around 1500 yards this year. Of course, it goes without saying that we are assuming Jefferson will remain completely healthy this season.
He won’t set career record for yards
The Vikings’ top receiver will have a terrific statistical season that will be seen as a rebound from his injury-plagued year in 2023. However, it won’t be perfect. Jefferson’s career record is 1809 yards. Not hitting a new high will be a disappointment for the pass-catcher and a shock for his biggest supporters.
However, if that 1809 yards remains the best season of his career, it won’t be anything to throw shade at. Whether he breaks it in the end is anyone’s guess, but he won’t do it this season.
Justin Jefferson’s touchdowns continue to decline
While Jefferson pulled a Houdini act by somehow tallying 1000 yards despite missing almost half of the season in 2023, his receiving touchdowns have seen a steady decline.
The category peaked in 2021 with 10 touchdowns before dropping to eight and then five last season. Despite the somewhat low production in the category, the decline will continue this year. It won’t be his fault, however, considering he won’t spend any time with Kirk Cousins this season.
With J.J. McCarthy now unfortunately out of the picture, it falls on Sam Darnold to get Jefferson his touchdowns. The quarterback hasn’t thrown for 20 touchdowns before in his career. Assuming he hits exactly 20 touchdowns this year, 25% of them would need to go to Jefferson to match his number from last year.
Defenses will key in on this and shut it down if Darnold focuses only on Jefferson in the RedZone. As such, it doesn’t seem that there is much hope for improvement for Justin Jefferson in this area.
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