After the Green Bay Packers re-signed Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams say the writing on the wall that he’d be gone. Overnight Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported Williams is set to sign a two-year deal worth up to $7.5 million with the Detroit Lions.
The initial reaction here, with some fantasy tilt, is easy. Is the D’Andre Swift breakout hype train derailed? But with how productive Jones was over the last couple years with Williams as his backup, let’s not panic there just yet.
Williams has never played more than 49 percent of the snaps in a season. He has topped 700 yards from scrimmage in three of his four seasons, with at least 25 catches in all four (70 total catches over the last two seasons). He’s not special in any particular metric, but he did lead all running backs in catch rate last year (88.6%). A fine player, but not a lead back. Some might even call him a poor man’s Swift.
With all of the above in mind, here are three way-too-early bold predictions for Jamaal Williams with the Lions next season.
3. At least 140 carries
New Lions’ head coach Dan Campbell seems set to bring an old-school style. Even with some indication of using Swift in the slot as a pass receiver, that leaves room for plenty of running the ball. Having Jared Goff as the quarterback practically mandates a conservative, play-action heavy approach.
Even if Swift is the lead back, only two running backs in the league had more than 300 carries last year. So even if Swift gets to 250 totes, there will be something left for Williams. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn came from the Chargers, where the No. 2 running back came in around 8-12 carries per game during his time as head coach (h/t to CBS Sports’ Dave Richard). Williams has not reached 125 carries since his rookie season. But assuming he plays all 16 games, 140 carries is less than nine carries per game. 150 carries might not be a reach, but I can’t quite get there.
2. A 90 percent catch rate
I’m going with a deeper metric here. As previously mentioned, Williams led NFL running backs with a catch rate close to 89 percent last year. In 2019, he posted an 86.7 percent catch rate. A 90 percent catch rate in 2021 shouldn’t be ruled out.
1. At Least 50 Receptions
Williams’ career-high for receptions is 39, set in 2019 with the Packers.
With h/t to Dave Richard of CBS Sports again, Lynn’s offenses (including 2016 as the Bills’ OC) have given plenty of work in the passing game to running backs. Over the last three seasons, Chargers’ running backs accounted for a 30.7 percent, 37.9 percent and a 28.8 percent reception share.
Williams and Swift could share the field at times. So there will be room for Williams to produce, and 50 catches feels like a practical lock.
