No. 1: The Accuracy Woes
Josh Allen’s accuracy was, perhaps, the biggest red flag throughout the 2018 draft-evaluation period and into the preseason. Some may argue those worries were blown out of proportion, though, so let’s get that issue out of the way first.
Still, it’s hard to look at his collegiate-career 56.2 completion percentage and not be concerned at all:
Passing | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | School | Conf | Class | Pos | G | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rate |
2015 | Wyoming | MWC | SO | QB | 2 | 4 | 6 | 66.7 | 51 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 | 138.1 |
*2016 | Wyoming | MWC | SO | QB | 14 | 209 | 373 | 56.0 | 3203 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 28 | 15 | 144.9 |
*2017 | Wyoming | MWC | JR | QB | 11 | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 16 | 6 | 127.8 |
Career | Wyoming | 365 | 649 | 56.2 | 5066 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 44 | 21 | 137.7 |
Granted, Allen wasn’t playing with a great supporting cast at Wyoming. And there are more than a few intangibles upon which the young quarterback can build at the pro level.
But looking at what ESPN’s Todd McShay said about Allen last March, via the Casper Star Tribune, we can see where the worries are based:
You’re going to hear 56.1, that number, a hundred times between now and the draft. How did he only complete 56.1 (percent of his passes)? Put in the tape, some of them are his. He’s got to own some of them, and he does. But there are some where receivers aren’t separating and not making contested that guys at Oklahoma were and guys at USC were at some point. I think, you’ve just got to know what you’re looking for. And there’s a risk factor here. I’m not going to lie. I’m not going to stand here and lie. He’s not as accurate in the tape you watch as you’d like to see from a guy who’s a top-five pick.
Let’s take a look at some of that film, specifically Allen’s efforts against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 of the preseason:
On the very first play, Allen has a completely clear pocket and misses a wide-open receiver at 10 yards out. He did, however, make his next two passing attempts on plays within five yards. So that’s a good sign.
Later on in the video, you see a number of well-placed throws, especially one in the red zone. But there are some throws later on lacking the touch.
That’s the point — consistency, or lack thereof. And against Cleveland’s backups and second stringers too.
If this was the lone concern in Allen’s rookie season, that would be fine. But let’s start to pair that with some of the other worries he’ll have in 2018.