Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry had a big season in 2019, leading the league in rushing (1,540 yards) with a league-best 16 rushing touchdowns on a league-high 303 carries in 15 games.
In 2020 Henry upped those numbers across the board, leading the league again with 378 carries for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns. LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and 2007 was the last back to win back-to-back NFL rushing titles.
Heading toward his age-27 season in 2021, Henry is 100th on the all-time rushing list with 5,860 rushing yards. But he’s essentially gotten there with three seasons of heavier usage, as he totaled just 286 carries in his first two NFL seasons. Which invites a question.
Could Derrick Henry Become The NFL’s All-Time Leading Rusher?
Emmitt Smith is the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, with 18,355 career yards. It took him 15 seasons to get there, only one of which he didn’t top 930 yards.
18,355 minus 5,860…..Henry is 12,495 yards behind Smith right now.
During an appearance with Pro Football Talk this week, Henry was asked about Smith’s all-time rushing mark. Smith had mentioned Henry as a candidate to unseat him.
“I definitely appreciate [Smith] saying that. I don’t see nobody breaking that record. I’m definitely going to try while I’m here.”
For his career so far, Henry has averaged 1,172 yards per season. At that rate, it would take him less than 11 more seasons to pass Smith (15.6 seasons total).
Over the last two seasons, Henry has averaged 1,783 yards per campaign. At that rate, it would only take him seven more seasons to catch Smith. Splitting that difference, and titling toward the lower end, let’s say nine or 10 more seasons to get it done.
To get to Smith in nine seasons, Henry would have to average 1,388.3 rushing yards per season. To get it done in 10 seasons, as easy math may tell you already, the average is 1,249.5 yards per campaign.
Henry’s Per Game Pace
Using his per-game average of the last two seasons (115.1 yards), it would take Henry just under 109 games to pass Smith. With the prospect of 17-game seasons, perhaps as soon as next season, that’s less than 6.5 seasons of 17 games to reach Smith’s mark. That assumes Henry would play all 17 games of all six-plus seasons, with injuries and possibly being rested for meaningless games in play. To say nothing of averaging 115 yards a game.
The lack of usage and wear-and-tear Henry had in his first couple seasons may allow him to extend his career, and playing at a high level, deeper into his 30’s than a typical running back.
Reaching any all-time record is a testament to excellence, durability and longevity. Henry’s last two seasons have been a good as any back-to-back run we’ve seen by a running back, including one of just eight 2,000-yard seasons in league history.
Back to the question of if Henry can become the NFL’s all-time rusher. It seems to be within reach right now, even if he can’t sustain the pace he has set over the last two seasons. In another two years, there will be a better picture of Henry’s potential run to pass Smith.
