3. Touchdown Regression Looms

Mack has 17 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. Solid, but not spectacular. He had 73 total red zone carries in that span (2.8 per game), with 16 scores on those carries.

Mack needs volume to put up his numbers. The first and easiest area he stands to lose volume is in the red zone, as Taylor scored 50 rushing touchdowns in his three college seasons. The 2.8 red zone carries per game Mack averaged in 2018 and 2019 isn’t going to be repeated in any sort of potential (or likely) split. A tilt toward Taylor may even eventually come, as a precursor or a parallel to a broader workload tilt.