1. Mack Offers Nothing As A Pass Catcher

With the transition from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in 2019, the Colts’ offense completely changed.

In 2018, Indianapolis was a top-five offense in pace and a top-10 offense in passing percentage. Last year, things shifted to No. 5 in rush percentage and bottom-10 in pace.

Mack had 247 carries last year (tied ninth in the league). No other Colts’ running back had more than 52 (Nyheim Hines), and Brissett was actually second on the team in carries with 56. Mack also missed two games, so his carry share could have been even larger.

Philip Rivers coming in to be the quarterback makes a tilt back toward the passing game a virtual lock this year. Mack had just 14 catches on 17 targets last year, and looking at raw snaps he had a carry or a catch/target on 264 of 510 snaps last year. If his snap rate drops (47 percent last year), which seems likely, so goes his fantasy appeal in short order. Hines is the pass-catching back, so he’s in line to benefit from a faster pace and more passing.

If Mack loses early down work and thus carry volume, his fantasy value goes with it as he can’t cover the difference with passing game production.