Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones was finally unleashed last season and became a Fantasy Football star for owners. In half-PPR scoring formats (the new standard), Jones was the RB2 overall on the year. He racked up over 1,084 yards rushing yards, 49 receptions, and 19 total touchdowns (16 rushing, three receiving).

Jones was the focal point on a lot of fantasy championship rosters, as he shattered his draft cost of a round three or four pick. Coming into this season, Jones is now safely a mid-second round pick, and could sneak into the late first with his ESPN ADP of pick 13.5. There are a few red flags to me on why Jones is a risky pick this year at his current draft cost.

First and foremost, the touchdown regression is coming for Jones. 16 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns is just so difficult to duplicate. Especially when Jones isn’t a touch monster. He only went over 20 carries three times last season.

Also a lot of things broke Jones’ way leading to his amazing season. Davante Adams getting injured and missing a significant portion of the season really opened up the doors for Jones to gobble up the touchdowns. Jones also did not have much competition behind him in the backfield as Jamaal Williams was not very effective. However, this year Jones could be giving up some touches and red-zone looks to the Packers’ second-round selection AJ Dillon. Dillon is a big, bruising back that will certainly get some playing time this season.

It is difficult to go against Jones’ talent on the field. He is a very efficient runner and similar to Alvin Kamara with the ball in his hands. There are just safer running backs to select in the second round. Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, and Austin Ekeler all come to mind as better picks this season over Jones.