Fantasy Football: 3 wide receivers poised to take a step back in 2020

A.J. Brown, Fantasy Football
Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

1. A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

From Week 7-17 last year, in parallel with Ryan Tannehill’s run as the starter for the Titans (and as QB3 in fantasy), Brown was WR7 in full PPR and WR3 in standard scoring. Over that span, Brown averaged 20.5 yards per catch and 12.7 yards per target. To say those numbers are unsustainable, setting aside the outlier for Tannehill, is an understatement.

Tennessee will again center their offense around running back Derek Henry this year. Even if their overall offensive efficiency drops as expected (making more plays a necessity), that might only bring a bump out of the bottom five of the league in passing rate.

Even within that great 10-game run last year, Brown produced duds in Week 8 (two catches for 11 yards, with a touchdown as a saving grace), Week 10 (one catch for 17 yards), Week 13 (three catches for 45 yard) and Week 16 (one catch for 34 yards). He also had just five catches in Tennessee’s three playoff games, with two grabs for 13 yards in the first two.

Brown was top-five in the league in yards per target, yards per catch and yards per route run last year. He’ll have to at least closely replicate that in a low-volume pass offense this year. At his current ADP ( WR18 -12-team, full PPR on Fantasy Football Calculator), there’s too much weekly hit-or miss, intertwined with a virtual lock for overall regression.

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