Brandon Aiyuk 2020 Fantasy Outlook
The easy comp, within the 49ers to make it even easier, is Samuel’s rookie season last year. He had 51 receptions (on 87 targets) for 802 yards and three touchdowns, while adding 159 yards and three touchdowns on 14 carries. In his 15 games, he had 50 or more receiving yards six times and 31 or less yards six times. Sprinkle in his rushing production, and he had over 50 total yards and/or a touchdown (via air or ground) nine times.
In standard fantasy scoring, Samuel finished as WR26 last year. In full and half-PPR, he was WR31 and WR29 respectively. Remove 33.9 fantasy points as a runner, and he would have finished 22 (standard), 13 (full PPR) and 16 spots (half-PPR) lower.
So where should you draft Brandon Aiyuk?
Via Fantasy Football Calculator, Aiyuk’s ADP has been has been on a up and down ride over just the last month or so. In full PPR (12 teams) he’s at a reasonable WR53 right now (pick 12.02). He’s a little lower in standard (WR60, pick 14.02) and half-PPR (WR64, pick 13.11). Put more succinctly, he’s in WR5 range for 12-team leagues.
If Aiyuk’s ADP stays where it is, or even pushes into the WR4 range, he’ll be a reasonable target. Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus makes a strong case for Aiyuk as a value pick, tabbing that his ADP should probably be closer to WR40. WR40 in full PPR right now, via FF Calculator, is fellow rookie CeeDee Lamb. Another rookie, Henry Ruggs, is WR41 in full PPR. In half-PPR, Emmanuel Sanders is WR40 and Mike Williams is WR41. In standard scoring, Darius Slayton is WR40 and Lamb is WR41.
Ranking the rookie wide receivers for fantasy this year, Aiyuk is no better than third for me-after Lamb or Jalen Reagor in some order and possibly ahead of Ruggs (with a similar QB in Ruggs’ case). Justin Jefferson is probably somewhere in that top three or four conversation among rookie receivers for somewhere. But I’m not quite there on the higher end.
Aiyuk’s ADP will be worth watching, if nothing else. Buzz stands to bring an upward trend, but this time more sustained and higher as fantasy drafts start to really roll. He’s the kind of player that could help win your league at the top-end of his possible outcomes. A rookie season very much like Samuel’s, but with less rushing production, seems more likely though. And that just doesn’t excite me very much.
