Fantasy Football: Is Matt Ryan primed for a big season in 2020?

Matt Ryan, Fantasy Football
Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan’s Track Record And What’s Around Him

In seven of the last eight seasons, Ryan has topped 4,400 yards with a completion rate over 66 percent. He has averaged 28 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions per season over that span.

But over the last five seasons, Ryan’s touchdown totals have gone like this: 21, 38, 20, 35 and 26. In the 38 and 35-touchdown campaigns, 2016 and 2018, he also threw just seven interceptions.

Ryan’s top target is Julio Jones, who in real and fantasy terms is a top-five wide receiver in the league. But with Calvin Ridley perhaps ready to fully emerge, the Falcons could have two top-12-15 fantasy wide receivers this year. Hayden Hurst is replacing Austin Hooper at tight end and Todd Gurley is replacing Devonta Freeman as the No. 1 running back, but those swaps could very well be a net positive for Ryan and the Falcons’ offense this year.

Ryan was QB11 in fantasy last year, and he was QB10 in points per game. Roughly half the fantasy points Schaub put up in his fill-in game (16.5 fantasy points), would have pushed Ryan all the way up to QB6 for the season.

If you buy into such superstitious things, Ryan has been QB2 in fantasy in each of the last two even-numbered seasons. Going back to 2010, he has been no lower than QB8 in an even-numbered season.

Ryan’s ADP is in the top-10 among quarterbacks right now, as high as QB7 and the sixth round (pick 6.04) in 12-team half PPR (per Fantasy Football Calculator). So it won’t necessarily be cheap to get him, but there’s a certain comfort in reliability that makes Ryan worth a long look once the top quarterbacks are off the board in fantasy drafts.

The fantasy football floor for Ryan in 2020 is low-end QB1, and the ceiling is top-five at the position. If I were to make a bet, I’d bet on the ceiling.

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