Fantasy Football: Predicting the 2020 season for Packers RB AJ Dillon

AJ Dillon, Packers, Fantasy Football
Photo Credit: NFL Analysis Network

Rather than address a need at wide receiver in the second round of April’s draft, the Green Bay Packers took running back AJ Dillon 62nd overall. Not adding a much-needed weapon for Aaron Rodgers looked bad, but with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams both entering the final year of their contracts there was a case for the Packers to bolster their running back pipeline.

Dillon led the ACC in rushing last year (1,685 yards), as he topped 300 carries with 14 touchdowns. He was a real workhorse, with 300 or more carries in two of his three seasons at Boston College, and he would have gotten close to that mark if he played more than 10 games in 2018. He had a nose for the end zone too, with 38 rushing scores in his college career.

Jones had a big season in 2018, with 1,558 total yards (1,084 rushing) and 19 total touchdowns (a tied for league-high 16 rushing touchdowns). Fantasy-wise, he was RB2 in full PPR and RB3 in standard scoring.

Jones is a serious regression candidate this year. Of his 16 rushing scores in 2019, 13 came in five games, with games where had three and four. His three receiving touchdowns even came in just two games, and back-to-back no less (Week 7-Week 8). As I took a look at here, Jones was basically useless to his fantasy owners when he didn’t score. If five meaningful games for fantasy owners, he didn’t reach 50 total yards four times.

The attention his leg muscles are getting aside, what is Dillon’s fantasy outlook as a rookie?