Fantasy Football Forecast 2020: Chargers WR Mike Williams
The Chargers look sure to throw the ball less this year, trading the gunslinger Rivers for the more mobile Taylor or eventually the rookie Herbert. But Williams has not been a high-volume guy anyway, with 90 targets or less in each of the last two years (66 in 2018).
So let’s look at a possible reason for Williams’ touchdown regression in 2019:
- 2018: 7 touchdowns on 14 red zone targets, 6-for-9 inside the 10-yard line, 4-for-4 inside the 5-yard line
- 2019: 1 touchdown on 15 red zone targets, 1-for-7 inside the 10-yard line, 1-for-4 inside the 5-yard line
Williams had basically the same amount of red zone targets the last two years. He also had plenty of big plays last year (eight 40-plus yard catches, 17 20-plus yard catches). He was credited with just three drops in 2019. So the scoring regression really came down to a good bit of bad luck, and Rivers having a down year overall.
Williams is fourth in the pecking order for targets in what’s lined up to be a lower volume passing attack. So that’s not ideal. But at WR41 (pick 9.03) in 12-team standard and WR60 (pick 14.02) in 12-team full PPR (FF Calculator), he’s a more appealing fantasy option than teammate Keenan Allen. Volume drives Allen’s production and fantasy value, and that is trending down for 2020.
It’s easy to expect more catches for Williams this year, with automatic correction in the touchdown column. Don’t expect north of 20 yards per catch again. But otherwise a finish as a WR3 is within easy range, especially in non-PPR, and the draft day discount adds to the appeal.
2020 Projection for Chargers’ Mike Williams: 60 receptions, 954 yards, 8 TDs