How High Can Watson Go?

Even without Hopkins, the Texans still have a solid set of skill position talent.

RB: David Johnson, Duke Johnson
WR: Cooks, Cobb, Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee
TE: Darren Fells, Jordan Akins

After taking a league-high 62 sacks in 2018, Watson took 44 sacks in 2019 as Laremy Tunsil took over at left tackle. Overall though, the Texans’ offensive line is just average.

The Texans finished 19th in the league in points allowed last year (24.1 per game), and they were 28th in yards allowed (388.3 per game). J.J. Watt missing eight games was a big factor. But the pain was widespread, as Houston allowed 33 touchdown passes (tied for fourth-most in the NFL) and 4.8 yards per carry (sixth-worst in the league).

The Texans most notably lost nose tackle D.J. Reader and cornerback Johnathan Joseph in free agency. Additions in free agency included solid safety Eric Murray and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, who only allowed 904 yards and a 116.1 passer rating in his coverage last year.

If Watt misses time, as he has significantly in three of the last four seasons, Houston’s defense is destined to be a bottom-tier unit again. Even with him, it isn’t looking particularly good.

Watson mixes efficiency (66.8 percent completion rate for his career) with big play proficiency and running ability like few other quarterbacks can. That rushing production (5.0 yards per carry, seven rushing touchdowns in 2019) raises his fantasy floor.

A career-high in pass attempts seems certain for Watson in 2020, with solid options to spread the ball around to if they are healthy (looking at you, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller and David Johnson). Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly is taking over play-calling from O’Brien this year, which can only be beneficial.

Watson has three very difficult looking matchups on his schedule-the Baltimore Ravens (Week 2), Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 3) and New England Patriots (Week 11). Other than that, six division games don’t look too imposing, and facing the NFC North is neutral to favorable.

Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are going to be the first two quarterbacks off the board in most fantasy drafts. But Watson has a legit path to being the QB1 for the season, and he’s coming in with an ADP of QB4 (pick 5.01) in 12-team standard scoring.

Deshaun Watson 2020 Projection: 4,330 passing yards, 30 TD, 13 INT, 435 rushing yards, 6 TDs