Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Outlook
The Colts ran the ball 29.4 times per game in 2019, fifth-most in the league, and Mack’s 247 totes were tied for ninth-most in the league. That volume feels likely to drop this year, with Philip Rivers coming in as the quarterback and the reigns loosened. But a faster pace lines up the notion of more plays, and the run will still be a prominent part of Indianapolis’ offense. In any case Mack needs volume to produce, and Taylor is sure to siphon off a solid chunk of work.
Kevn Bowen of 107.5 The Fan projected 15 carries per game for Taylor this year back in May. That would be on the plus-side of a split with Mack, based on last year’s attempts. It isn’t out of the question, but Taylor may not be that “lead” back for the Colts until into weeks into the season.
Early last season, there seemed to be a concerted effort in Madison to show Taylor had something to offer as a pass catcher. But 15 catches and four receiving touchdowns over the first six games faded to 26 catches and five receiving touchdowns for the season. Moving into the Big Ten schedule is an easy reason for that reduction of work in the passing game. Now in the NFL, perhaps Taylor can be fully unlocked as a passing game weapon.
Let’s look at some current ADP data on Taylor:
Fantasy Pros
Standard Scoring: RB15 (No. 63 overall)
Full PPR: RB21 (No. 49 overall)
Half PPR: RB22 (No. 52 overall)
Fantasy Football Calculator (12-team leagues)
Standard Scoring: RB32 (pick 7.06)
Full PPR: RB22 (pick 4.02)
Half PPR: RB29 (pick 6.11)
A mid-to-high-end RB2 is where Mack finished in standard leagues last year (RB17). That looks like the ceiling for Taylor, on the idea he shows himself as a better back than Mack and gets the workload along those lines early. An injury to Mack, who has missed at least two games in all three of his seasons, would open the door for Taylor to take over and not look back.
Jonathan Taylor 2020 Projection: 190 carries for 856 yards, 6 TD; 20 receptions for 155 yards, 1 TD
Taylor’s stock is high in dynasty leagues, and you could build a case for him to be the top rookie off the board in rookie drafts. But in strict redraft leagues (10 or 12 teams) he’s best slotted as a RB3 on draft day, albeit with a very high ceiling if things break a certain way. With ADP in mind, I lean Cam Akers over Taylor among rookie running backs right now.