Rivers Will Bring Back The Colts Passing Game

In 2019, spurred by the August retirement of Andrew Luck, the Colts changed their offense dramatically. With Jacoby Brissett stepping in, they were top-five in the league in run percentage and bottom-10 in pace. In 2018 with Luck under center, they were top-5 in pace and top-10 in pass percentage. Top wide receiver T.Y. Hilton missing six games last year was also a big factor in how that run-pass balance shifted.

Rivers coming aboard means two things: more passing and a quicker pace. He may not get to last year’s 591 pass attempts, but that would be better for his overall efficiency. For an example, see 2018 when Rivers had 4,308 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on 508 attempts (with a 68.3 percent completion rate).

Philip Rivers 2020 Projection: 335 completions on 520 attempts (64.4 percent), 3,920 yards, 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions

With standard ESPN scoring (four points per touchdown pass, one point per 25 passing yards, -2 points for interceptions), that projection comes in at 238.8 fantasy points for Rivers passing numbers. Sprinkle in something like 25 rushing yards and a two lost fumbles (-2 points), and the point projection drops a little (237.3 fantasy points).

Using FF Today’s current projections, set at the aforementioned ESPN scoring setting, and that 237.3 points comes in around QB19. Coincidentally or not, Rivers ADP (via Fantasy Football Calculator) is QB19 or QB21 when adjusted for full PPR or standard scoring.

On an organic level, I like Rivers a bit better than my projection and his ADP suggests. I’d take him as a middle or high-end QB2 in leagues with 12 or more teams, with a range of outcomes anywhere from a low-end QB1 to a low-end QB2 in play.