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Fantasy Football: What to expect from Aaron Jones in 2021

After getting closer to the workload he deserved in 2018, and scoring eight touchdowns, Aaron Jones had a breakout season in 2019 (1,084 rushing yards, a tied for league-high 16 touchdowns; 49 receptions for 474 yards, three touchdowns). In fantasy terms, he finished as RB2 in full PPR and RB3 in standard scoring that year.

Some people saw his boom and bust games of 2019 and were down on Jones heading into 2020. Then in 14 games, he rushed for a career-high 1,104 yards with nine touchdowns. He was heavily involved as a pass catcher, with 47 catches for 355 yards and two touchdowns. He finished as RB5 in both standard and full PPR.

After entering the free agent market as arguably the top running back available, Jones went back to the Green Bay Packers on a four-year deal. With Jamaal Williams gone in free agency, the less versatile AJ Dillon will become Jones’ primary backup this year. Seventh-round pick rookie Kylin Hill is the most interesting player further down the depth chart, but he’s not a threat to Jones.

The elephant in the Packers’ room right now is the Aaron Rodgers situation. He may sit out until he forces a trade, ala Carson Palmer with the Bengals 10 years ago. Or, he might retire. Or, he might actually be traded after June 1. If Rodgers is gone, for one reason or another, 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love would become the starting quarterback. That’s not ideal for any of the Packers’ skill position players. That includes Jones, though he would get plenty of work in a more run-oriented offense with Love under center.

But leaving the Rodgers drama aside, Jones is now the Packers’ most versatile running back. Williams’ passing game role has departed, and as it was Jones threatened 50 catches in each of the last two seasons.

Jones nose for the end zone is now a trend, with 30 total touchdowns over the last two seasons and 33 rushing scores over the last three. A less-proficient Packers’ offense, if Rodgers is gone, would reduce the volume of opportunities there. More snaps, with Williams gone, might offset that a bit.

Even last year, Jones was inconsistent. He started the season with four rushing touchdowns in three games, and six total touchdowns in the first four games. Over his remaining 10 games, he had five total touchdowns (all rushing). He had 130 or more rushing yards in a game three times, with five total touchdowns in those contests. On the flipside, he had less than 60 rushing yards in a game five times, and less than 70 yards on the ground eight times. Receiving production offset some of those ups and downs, but not as much as you might think looking at his game log. Jones was fairly productive late in the season though. In four of five games from Week 12-16, he had 90 or more rushing yards.

All in all, as long as Jones gets his typical numbers his fantasy managers will be happy. Another finish as a top-5 fantasy running back is possible, spurred by a push toward 300 touches, no matter who the Packers’ quarterback is. Early rankings and ADP data has Jones in the back half of the top-10 running backs. That translates to late-first round, early second-round territory in 12 team leagues. So, in a certain light, there might be a bit of value to be mined here.

It’s obvious, but Jones’ ceiling and floor will both be lower if Rodgers is not Green Bay’s quarterback. But the bottom is unlikely to fall out for him either, with a narrower swath of production to go around and his status as one of two centerpieces of the offense (along with Davante Adams). Rodgers’ situation is worth monitoring, no doubt. But it’s a question more than a concern for Jones’ fantasy value in 2021.

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