The Pittsburgh Steelers seem to hit on a non-first-round draft pick wide receiver every year, or at least more regularly than any other NFL team. The latest example is Chase Claypool, a second-round pick (No. 49 overall) out of Notre Dame last year.
After playing 43 snaps in his first two NFL games, Claypool saw an uptick in Week 3 against the Houston Texans when Diontae Johnson suffered a concussion. Johnson suffered a back injury in Week 4, setting Claypool up for his breakthrough outing (seven receptions for 110 yards, three touchdowns; one rushing touchdown). Johnson missed Week 6, and Claypool had a solid outing (four catches for 74 yards with a rushing touchdown).
Claypool finished as WR14 in standard fantasy scoring last year (WR19 in half-PPR; WR23 in full PPR). Nine receiving touchdowns, and 11 total touchdowns, were especially helpful. But that Week 4 outing accounted for 23.3 percent (standard scoring), 21.3 percent (half-PPR) and 19.8 percent (full PPR) of his fantasy points. And don’t forget about Week 6, when he had 14.1, 16.1 and 18.1 fantasy points in standard, half-PPR and full PPR respectively.
After Johnson returned in Week 7, Claypool sustained some fantasy value. From Week 8-Week 12, had at least eight targets in all five games with four touchdowns over that span. He did not score again until Week 17. From Week 13-16, he was WR65 in standard and full PPR fantasy scoring (WR66 in half-PPR). Over that stretch, he was even outproduced in fantasy by James Washington among Steelers’ wide receivers.
Chase Claypool 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook
With Ben Roethlisberger clearly showing his limitations last year, the Steelers want to run the ball more and better this year (hence the drafting of Najee Harris in the first round). That will mean fewer targets to go around, with Johnson and Smith-Schuster as the top two options.
Over at Fantasy Football Calculator, Claypool’s current ADP is WR29 in 12-team full PPR (pick 7.01) and WR28 in 12-team standard (pick 6.12). In a draft I’m doing, taking into context it’s a 20-team league, he went six picks before Johnson and Smith-Schuster went after both in the next round. Is Claypool really worthy of being the first Steelers wide receiver off the board in fantasy drafts? I don’t think so, but he does have some high expectations for himself this year.
“We’ve got an extra game. Hopefully a faster start on the touchdown category,” Claypool said on Monday’s Inside Training Camp Live. “So I’m going to say 14 touchdowns.”
To be fair, Claypool scored 11 total touchdowns as a rookie. So 14 may not seem like a reach, even under the assumption he’s talking purely touchdown catches. And he will have the benefit of actual offseason work this year. But having him on a fantasy roster means having to draft him as a WR3, and banking on him scoring to deliver a startable week the majority of the time. That’s fine in best ball formats, but otherwise Claypool is overvalued with bust potential written all over him for 2021.
