A Look At Gurley’s Current ADP And Rankings

It’s very early, but Gurley is coming in as RB34 (pick 8.05) in 12-team standard scoring on Fantasy Football Calculator. In full-point PPR he’s RB35 and pick 8.05.

Fantasy Pros’ current consensus rankings are a lot kinder to Gurley. He’s RB15 there in standard scoring, and the 31st-ranked player overall. Flip to PPR (full-point), and Gurley is the 34th-ranked player on Fantasy Pros right now.

Based purely on his scoring prowess, Gurley will be a fantasy asset if he can stay on the field. He’s also getting an upgrade in run blocking, after the Rams’ line fell off last year.

Gurley’s value is not as good in PPR formats, but his value in that format is not dead either. If he could get back to 40 catches this year, a RB1 finish in all scoring formats is possible.

Gurley’s downside is clear, as he’s one knee tweak away from missing a chunk of games or having his workload severely limited. But if his early ADP stays down where it is now, just beyond 100 picks into 12-team drafts, he will be a good value.

Looking further up FF Calculator’s running back ADP (12-team, full-point PPR), a case could be made for Gurley to be taken above guys like James Conner (RB18), Mark Ingram (RB19) and Kerryon Johnson (RB20) in the fourth round.

On the risk/reward, value/overvalued spectrum, there will be a very fine line for Gurley once fantasy drafts get going.

In the fourth or fifth round in 12-team leagues, with some tilt toward standard scoring, Gurley is in line surface as a viable option. Those who have secured two good running backs could take the plunge there, and those who adopt the “do the opposite” or “zero running back” strategy will have a case to take him in that range too.

If Gurley goes higher than the top half of the fourth round, assuming a 12-team league, I’ll be comfortable letting whoever took him there take on the risk.