Does The Risk Outweigh The Reward With Beckham?

Despite his severity of his injury, Beckham rarely left the field last year (95 percent of the snaps). He might have benefited from a bit more rest, with less target volume but better efficiency. But even in a diminished state, he was still in the WR2/WR3 range for fantasy purposes.

One injury, especially a broken leg like Beckham had in 2017, can be considered a random occurrence. But the last two years it’s been quad and groin issues to limit his effectiveness, and that borders on a troubling trend of soft tissue injuries.

Beckham’s upside, in 2020 or any year until further notice, is finishing as a top-10 (or even top-5) fantasy wide receiver. Last year could be regarded as the floor, with everything that went against him, but it could be the start of a real decline too.

Beckham’s ADP is currently WR10 (pick 3.08) in 12-team full PPR (via Fantasy Football Calculator). In half-PPR he’s down at WR24 (pick 5.04, 12 teams), and in 12-team standard he’s coming in all the way down at WR34 (pick 7.09). So scoring format will dictate a lot for where he should be targeted in drafts, along with how much you buy into a rebound for Beckham.

Despite the optimism in his full PPR ADP, Beckham can’t be confidently drafted as a WR1 this year. But as a WR2, somewhere in Round 3-5 (pick 40-60) in a 12-team league, the risk gets reduced as the upside starts to stand out.