In each of his first two NFL seasons, Alvin Kamara was a top-five fantasy running back. Even last year, with ankle and knee injuries costing him two games and hobbling him in some others, he was RB9 in full PPR (RB16 in standard scoring).

After scoring 14 rushing touchdowns and catching four more in 2018, Kamara went without a touchdown of any kind between from Week 4-Week 15 last year. The salvation for his fantasy impact, as evidenced by the gap in his standing from standard to full PPR, was posting exactly 81 receptions for the third straight season. A well-timed end to his scoring drought, with two rushing touchdowns and 110 total yards in Week 16, is surely fresh on the minds of fantasy owners.

Touchdowns (or lack thereof) can be random, and Kamara had no issue there his first two seasons (22 rushing touchdowns and nine receiving touchdowns). So he’s in line for some correction there this year, and there’s a case for Kamara as the second running off the board in fantasy drafts. No matter what, he’ll be a single-digit pick in every league.

But there’s a contrary position on Kamara, and here’s why he’ll be a fantasy bust in 2020.