Fantasy Football: Why Alvin Kamara will be a bust in 2020

Alvin Kamara will go as high as top 3-5 in some fantasy drafts this year, but here's why he'll be a massive bust.

Alvin Kamara, Fantasy Football
Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

It’s unbelievable to think about, but Kamara has not reached 900 rushing yards in a season. A timeshare with Mark Ingram his first two seasons became something similar with Latavius Murray in 2019. Murray is still around, if only as a high-end fantasy handcuff with some standalone potential (637 rushing yards, 34 catches and six total touchdowns last year). Nearly one-third of his carries (48 of 146) came in the two games Kamara missed. But he did not exactly go away after the Week 9 bye, with 66 carries to Kamara’s 85 from Week 10-17.

Swiss army knife quarterback/running back/wide receiver/tight end Taysom Hill may see more snaps this year. Drew Brees is willing to cede some snaps, and Sean Payton may have a plan for Hill. Hill had 27 carries in 2019, with six in the red zone, and 21 of his 64 carries over the last two seasons have come in the red zone.

Kamara’s Passing Game Role On Way Down?

Michael Thomas (149 receptions in 2019) is the clear No. 1 wide receiver for the Saints. After Kamara’s 81 catches last year, it was quite a drop to tight end Jared Cook’s 43 receptions.

But with the Saints’ signing of Emmanuel Sanders, there’s now a solid, experienced No. 2 wide receiver in place. And there’s another mouth to feed in the passing game.

Kamara’s fantasy floor will be raised by his passing game role, even if he sees a drop in targets this year. Playing on one healthy leg for a big chunk of last season surely helped foster a drop in his red zone workload, so more should naturally come there in 2020. But 2018’s 77 total red zone touches and 34 carries inside the 10-yard (16 inside the 5) stand as a significant outlier.

Kamara will not last through the top-10 in fantasy drafts, and he’ll be worth considering in the top-5 in PPR formats. But the ceiling is legitimately not what it has been, and the floor has dropped. I’ll surely stand on the hill alone. But I can’t get past how Kamara smells like a significant, and surprising all things considered, fantasy bust for 2020.