Why Higbee could disappoint in 2020
Once again, Higbee’s remarkable finish to the 2019 season was one to remember for fantasy owners. The pass-catching tight end would prove to be a must-start option in Weeks 12-17. With that being said, can Higbee continue from where he left off in 2019?
At the beginning of the 2019 season, Higbee wasn’t the No. 1 tight end in the Rams’ offense. From Weeks 1 through 8, Gerald Everett was logging the majority of the snaps in Sean McVay’s base offense of 11 personnel. But with Los Angeles’ offensive line playing abysmally, McVay made an adjustment later in the season.
McVay would begin running more 12 personnel, allowing Higbee to see more time on the field with Everett. At the same time, Everett would suffer a knee injury in a Week 12 bout with the Baltimore Ravens. As a result, Everett would miss three weeks, giving Higbee the reins as the No. 1 tight end. Even when Everett returned to the field in Week 16, he barely saw the field. He would see just four offensive snaps in the last two weeks of the season.
While Everett saw his role diminish due to injury, Higbee would take advantage of his absence in the last six weeks of the season. In the final six weeks of the 2019 season, Higbee received 62 targets from Jared Goff (most among TEs from Weeks 12-17). On top of that, he would record an aDOT (average depth of target) of 6.8 yards, which was the 11th best mark among tight ends that saw 25+ targets in the last six games.
Furthermore, Higbee would produce a 1.28 RACR (receiver air conversion ratio) and a 0.52 WOPR (weighted opportunity rating. That made him the fourth-best tight end that saw 25+ targets in both categories in the last six games. Just by looking at his numbers, Higbee seems like a surefire option in 2020.
However, Higbee’s production from Weeks 12 through 17 is going to be tough to replicate in the upcoming season. Not only is Everett a hand-picked player by McVay, but the Rams also added Brycen Hopkins in the 2020 NFL Draft. Despite Everett entering a contract year, he should still have a role with Los Angeles in 2020. Of course, that would limit Higbee’s ability to thrive again in the upcoming season.
Lastly, Higbee is currently being selected as TE7 in ESPN fantasy football drafts. On the other hand, Everett is oddly the 31st tight end off the board in ESPN leagues. Provided that, Everett is likely the better value in fantasy football next season. And for Higbee, fans could be disappointed in the value he returns due to the factors that could come into play in 2020.
