Justin Herbert’s Fantasy Potential

In two full seasons as the starter at Oregon, Herbert had 61 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 832 pass attempts (1.7 percent interception rate). It’s easy to say he has scatter shot accuracy, and he clearly wasn’t great in the intermediate area of the field. But his completion percentage went from 59.4 percent in 2018 to 66.8 percent last year, so in the right system he will be just fine.

Sacks count against rushing yardage in college football, so rushing yardage for quarterbacks is tricky to analyze on strict terms. But Herbert is big (6-foot-6, 236 pounds) and mobile, so that enhances his fantasy upside and floor if/when he has to play.

Herbert is currently QB35 in Fantasy Pros’ rankings, and unless he wins the starting job for Week 1 he’ll start the season on the waiver wire in redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues, FF Calculator has him behind Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa among quarterbacks.

Is There Any Comp For Herbert?

A comp I landed on for Herbert is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Let’s widen the comp to fantasy, and try to shape a possible outlook for Herbert as a rookie.

Allen played in 12 games and started 11 as a rookie in 2018, and he finished as QB21 in fantasy for the season. His first start game in Week 2, then he missed four games with an elbow injury. Let’s split his rookie season that way, somewhat halfway, with his fantasy rank over each span.

Week 2-6 (five starts) left injured in Week 6): QB27
Week 12-17 (six starts): QB1

Over the six starts to end his rookie season, Allen had at least 95 rushing yards four times (over 100 twice) with five scores on the ground. That masked seven interceptions over that span (multiple in a game three times) to yield that QB1 stretch. Then last year, in his first full season as the starter, Allen was QB6 in fantasy.

Assuming he keeps the starting job when/if he takes over from Taylor, Herbert will be some sort of fantasy asset as a rookie. In deep or two-quarterback leagues, there are worse ways to use a late draft pick or couple auction dollars to stash a high-upside quarterback.

If we’re being realistic, Herbert’s full breakout as a fantasy signal caller won’t come until at least 2021. But with all he’d have going for him upon taking over this year, it doesn’t take much to see him as a potential fantasy steal. And in the right context (league size, roster size), he can be picked up for nothing in redraft leagues with only upside in mind.