What makes Allen a possible bust in 2020?
Once again, since the 2017 season, Allen has contributed 97+ receptions, 1,196+ yards, and six touchdowns in each season. Though, it’s important to note that Rivers was his quarterback for all of those seasons. That won’t be the case in 2020.
Following the departure of Rivers in free agency, the Chargers are likely going to start Tyrod Taylor in Week 1. Also, there’s the chance that rookie Justin Herbert becomes the starter at some point in the upcoming season. Regardless of who starts, Allen’s numbers will likely see a slight dip this season.
One of the reasons why Allen was such a safe option in recent years was the target share he received. In the past three seasons, Allen was able to record an average of 148 targets. Just a season ago, Allen tallied a target share of 0.25, which was tied for the sixth-most in the NFL. However, with Taylor under center, the Chargers aren’t going to throw nearly as much in 2020. In turn, this hurts Allen’s value in fantasy football.
As an illustration, Rivers attempted an average of 558 passes in the past three seasons. On the other hand, in the three seasons that Taylor started for the Buffalo Bills from 2015-2017, the mobile quarterback attempted an average of only 412 passes. Therefore, there’s reason to believe that the Chargers don’t attempt more than 500 passes if Taylor is commanding the offense.
With a 100+ pass attempt difference in Rivers and Taylor, Allen won’t see the same number of targets he’s seen in recent seasons — unless he produces a 0.40+ target share in 2020. We’ve seen just one wide receiver notch a 0.40+ target share since 2009. Back in 2012, Brandon Marshall saw a 0.40 target share as he garnered 192 targets.
Seeing that the Chargers have Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Hunter Henry in the offense, it’s tough to envision Allen having nearly 50 percent of the team’s passing targets. Not to mention, Los Angeles added Joe Reed and K.J. Hill in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Plus, Allen’s touchdown totals could slightly decrease this season. Provided that he’s only caught an average of six touchdowns since 2017, any decrease in touchdowns could hurt his value in fantasy football significantly.
When speaking about the best wide receivers in the NFL, Allen’s name definitely deserves to be mentioned early in the conversation. But in terms of fantasy football, it may be wise to pass on the route-running extraordinaire in 2020.
