The Detroit Lions have been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL during the 2023 season. With a 7-2 record heading into Week 11, they are sitting atop the NFC North and are only one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the conference.
Head coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes have done an excellent job of turning things around in Detroit, changing the culture upon their hiring. In Year 3 of their tenures, the Lions look ready to compete with the upper-echelon teams in the NFC.
A big reason for their turnaround and success has been the performance of quarterback Jared Goff. Many people viewed Goff as a necessary throw-in as part of the return package for the Lions in the Matthew Stafford blockbuster from the Los Angeles Rams.
Detroit was adamant that was not the case, as they liked what Goff brought to the table. After a lackluster first season in the Motor City, Goff has been everything the Lions would have hoped for and more. Goff has been consistently productive the last two seasons and is on pace to lead the Lions to their first divisional title since the 1993 season when they won the NFC Central.
With this success, the question now turns to what a new contract for Goff could look like. His current deal expires after the 2024 season. Only 29 years old right now, the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft should have plenty of more good years ahead.
Mike Ginnitti of Spotrac broke down what an extension for Goff could look like from the Lions. Based on his production and the current quarterback market, he is looking at a deal that could pay at least $40 million annually.
“After a lackluster 2021 campaign in Detroit (91.5 rating), Goff has now put together back to back seasons that prove he’s worth the price of admission. At the time of this piece, PFF has him rated #3 among all QBs, while his 99.1 QBR currently ranks 9th. Contractually speaking, Goff’s numbers (and career arch) line up best with Kirk Cousins, who will also be in the market for a new contract in the coming months. What does this mean financially? If the top of the QB market is seeking $50M+, Cousins and Goff are most likely mathematically falling into the $40M per year range.”
As Ginnitti pointed out, the current contract that Goff is playing on pays $33.5 million annually. He signed that in 2019 with the Rams and it accounted for 17.8 percent of the cap. Sticking with that percentage is how Ginnitti got to the $40 million per year range on a new deal.
“If Detroit were to sign him to a contract extension right now (not a horrible idea by the way), 17.8% of the current cap calculates to almost exactly $40M per year,” Ginnitti wrote. “Should the cap rise to $245M next March, his assumed price could rise to almost $44M per year. Let’s not overthink this and split the difference.”
Ultimately, Ginnitti has predicted Goff to sign a five-year, $210 million deal with $168 million guaranteed. That is $42 million annually, but if Goff can lead the Lions on a deep playoff run this year or in 2024, that price is going to go up.
The top of the market is currently held by Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, who is making $55 annually. It will be tough for Goff to top that number, but enough success in the remainder of the 2023 season and next year could easily push Goff toward $50 million annually.
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