Luck Factor

While the Packers were one of the best teams record wise during the 2019 season, they were also one of the luckiest teams.

In the NFL, luck can come in a variety of ways. Luck can be you winning close games, or luck can be your team having the ball last on a tight game. Other-times luck can be turnover luck were a defender drops an interception, or your team falls on a fumble. Unfortunately for the Packers, they got fairly lucky in pretty much all of these categories last season.

During the Packers’ 2019 regular and postseason, Green Bay was involved in 10 games that were one-score games (8 points or less), and the Packers ended up finishing with a record of 9-1 during those games.

The Packers got extremely lucky during both of their games against the Detroit Lions. Being that the Lions and Green Bay are in the same division, they played each other twice and the Packers won both of those games but never led once during regulation of either game. Now you may be asking, how is that possible? Well, they were lucky enough to have possession of the ball late in both games and ended up kicking game-winning field goals as time expired.

Not only did the Packers get lucky in terms of close games, but they also got a good bit of turnover luck to go their way. According to PFF, Green Bay was a bit lucky in terms of interceptions. PFF compared turnover-worthy throws to actual turnovers and ended up having five fewer turnovers via pass attempts then they should have. While five sounds small in the grand scheme of a whole season, it can be a big difference-maker when you have 10 games that were one-score games like the had in 2019.

The Packers are going to go in the complete opposite direction of things and will finish 1-9 in one score games, and will have an absurd amount of turnovers compared to turnover worthy throws, but Green Bay likely are going to regress to the mean and likely will not be as lucky as they were in 2019.