New England Patriots: 3 Reasons Why Tom Brady Will Regress in 2018

New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning
(Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports)

Reason No. 2: Father Time Can Strike Quickly

OK, so Tom Brady is coming off an MVP year, another Pro Bowl selection and his third first-team All-Pro nod on his Hall of Fame resume. Why expect anything different entering 2018, especially if the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior?

Well, there’s what whole Father Time argument. It won’t go away until it finally hits Brady.

It can strike quickly too, which is a problem. Case in point, one needs to look no further than Brady’s rival, quarterback Peyton Manning, to see just how swiftly a fellow future-Hall of Famer went from a perennial Pro Bowler and MVP candidate to quarterbacking liability.

Just note Manning’s time with the Denver Broncos as a keen example, particularly the change from 2014 to 2015:

Peyton Manning Broncos Passing Table
Year Age Tm Pos G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Y/A AY/A Y/G Rate
2012*+ 36 DEN QB 16 16 13-3-0 400 583 68.6 4659 37 11 8.0 8.4 291.2 105.8
2013*+ 37 DEN QB 16 16 13-3-0 450 659 68.3 5477 55 10 8.3 9.3 342.3 115.1
2014* 38 DEN QB 16 16 12-4-0 395 597 66.2 4727 39 15 7.9 8.1 295.4 101.5
2015 39 DEN QB 10 9 7-2-0 198 331 59.8 2249 9 17 6.8 5.0 224.9 67.9
Care Care 266 265 186-79-0 6125 9380 65.3 71940 539 251 7.7 7.6 270.5 96.5
13 y 13 y IND 208 208 141-67-0 4682 7210 64.9 54828 399 198 7.6 7.5 263.6 94.9
4 yr 4 yr DEN 58 57 45-12-0 1443 2170 66.5 17112 140 53 7.9 8.1 295.0 101.7
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/9/2018.

The drastic drop off when Manning hit 39 years old was apparent from nearly every vantage point. Statistically, the numbers in 2015 were the worst of his career. Manning’s arm strength disappeared. And while the Broncos won Super Bowl 50, it was in spite of Manning’s efforts, not because of them.

Brady has maintained his level of effectiveness beyond that of Manning, which is exceptional. An MVP at an age after the time Manning called it quits cements everything you’d want to know about Brady and why one should never bet against him.

But those abilities that have made Brady who he is may have already started to elude him, which leads us to the next point.

Next Page: No. 1

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Peter Panacy

Peter Panacy

Peter is a widely published writer, having first started with Bleacher Report in 2011, rising up the ranks to become B/R's 49ers lead columnist. He still contributes to B/R and, more recently, 49ers Webzone and NFL Analysis Network. His work has included exclusive interviews with Hall of Famers Steve Young and Jerry Rice, as well as current players Solomon Thomas and Richard Sherman. He has also made appearances on Albert Lea Radio in Minnesota, Southern Oregon's 96.1 The Game, 95.7 The Game in San Francisco and the Bay Area's KNBR 680.

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