Reason No. 3: A Diminishing Skill Set for the Patriots Quarterback
Two of the abilities Peyton Manning lost in relatively quick order were his ability to get the ball out quickly and to make the deep pass.
Tom Brady’s arm strength hasn’t been a question for years, and there were plenty of throws throughout 2017 to suggest he’s not going to struggle with that this year. But if we dive into some of the advanced metrics, it’s possible to notice how the veteran quarterback is starting to trend in the wrong direction.
Last year, according to Pro Football Focus, Brady completed 33 passes of 20-plus yards out of 80 attempts — a percentage of 46.3 (not including drops), which was good for eighth best among all qualifiers with at least 10 deep-ball attempts. His passer rating on these plays, however, was 88.5 — 20th out of that same list. Go back a year to 2016, and Brady had an accuracy percentage of 51.0 (third best).
True, Brady’s deep-ball abilities were lower in 2015, so he ended up seeing a spike in this category a year ago. But when one combines age to the equation, it’s not hard to see how this number could be trending in the wrong direction.
An indicator of such could also be Brady’s release time. Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Brady’s time from the snap was 2.71 seconds last year — roughly in the middle of the pack. In 2016, it was 2.56. The year before, an astounding 2.26.
Again, there’s a lot going into the numbers. Pass protection is essential for quarterbacks taking longer to deliver a pass within the pocket. Receivers need to run routes and get open. Brady has turned less-known wide receivers into household names his entire career, so that shouldn’t be too much a concern. But the Patriots offensive line could be an issue, particularly with PFF ranking this unit 11th entering 2018 — down from No. 3 overall at the end of 2017.
None of this is meant to say Brady is bound for a massive fall this season or that age will catch up to him in 2018. It’s merely suggesting the possibility and, by looking as deeply as can reasonably be done, understanding the reasons why it would happen.
Still, betting against Brady has always been a bad, bad idea. And if the past is any indication, he’ll wind up proving this entire assessment wrong when 2018 is finished.
