Houston Texans: 3 Key Factors to Winning the AFC South in 2018

Houston Texans, J.J. Watt, Kansas City Chiefs
(Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports)

No. 1: Stay Healthy

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.

The health X-factor is important for any team in the NFL, and injuries are just as big a part of the game as touchdowns, yards and defensive stands. Some teams are able to adequately prepare for injuries to key players. Case in point, the Super Bowl-champion Philadelphia Eagles were fortunate enough to see No. 2 quarterback Nick Foles shoulder the load to an NFL crown after they lost Carson Wentz to a season-ending ACL tear late last year.

When Deshaun Watson suffered his own 2017 injury, the Texans were 3-4 and still in the thick of the AFC South race.

Houston won only one game after Watson was lost.

Key defensive injuries (namely the ones to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus) hurt too. But consider Houston’s offensive splits before and after Watson’s injury. In the six games Watson started, the Texans averaged 34.7 points per game. Afterwards, Houston’s offense boasted a mere 13.7 points per contest.

Yeah, Watson’s absence hurt. Especially when you consider his remarkable rookie stat line:

Deshaun Watson Passing Table
Year Age Tm Pos G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Y/A Y/G Rate Sk
2017 22 HOU qb 7 6 3-3-0 126 204 61.8 1699 19 8 8.3 242.7 103.0 19
Care Care 7 6 3-3-0 126 204 61.8 1699 19 8 8.3 242.7 103.0 19
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/28/2018.

The quarterbacking duo of Tom Savage and T.J. Yates managed passer ratings of 71.4 and 65.8, respectively, and the Texans’ ground game was never able to get running back Lamar Miller going with opposing defenses cramming the box without fear of a legitimate passing threat. As a result, Miller finished last season with a mere 3.7 yards per carry.

Short offensive drives in the wake of Watson’s injury, combined with losing two of their best defenders, put the Texans defense under the gun as a result.

No team gave up more than Houston’s 436 points allowed last year. So, yes. A relatively clean bill of health would work wonders this season.

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