1. A Finish As A Top-10 WR In Any Scoring Format
Take 130 targets, and project a catch total based on Hilton’s career catch rate (58.4 percent). That gives you 75 receptions. Let’s give him seven or eight touchdowns on the back end.
In very round and simple terms, 75 catches for 1,200 yards and seven scores comes in at 162 standard fantasy points. In 2019 that would have made Hilton WR11 in standard scoring, WR12 in full-point PPR and WR12 in half-point PPR.
It is very early, but Fantasy Football Calculator has Hilton’s ADP at WR19 (pick 4.05) in 12-team full-point PPR. Standard scoring 12-team ADP is more optimistic on him (WR14, pick 4.03), which reflect Hilton carrying slightly better value in non-PPR formats.
A top-10 fantasy finish among wide receivers, regardless of scoring format (at least the most common ones), goes down as the boldest of these predictions. But I’m pushing some chips to the middle of the table on Hilton for 2020.