Making the Pick: Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb or Raiders’ Henry Ruggs III?

While we can have the argument all day over who is better between Henry Ruggs III and CeeDee Lamb and who will have the best career, we are talking about their rookie year. If Lamb and Ruggs turnout to be all-time greats, their rookie year will be time for them to develop, and they will be influenced by the system around them, so in order to figure out who will have the better rookie season between the two, we must look at the player, as we’ll as the system and situation they are in.

Ruggs was the first receiver to go off the board and was selected by the now Las Vegas Raiders. One would think that Ruggs would end up on a team that threw the ball deep down the field often, but Derek Carr and the Raiders are far from that.

Derek Carr has become known for getting the ball out of his hands quickly, and not throwing the ball deep in general, and the stats back this sentiment up. According to PlayerProfiler.com, Derek Carr threw 47 deep passes last season, which placed him at 25th amongst all quarterbacks. Carr also placed 25th in pass attempt distance. The one thing Ruggs does have going for him is the Raiders lack of top-end talent at the receiver position.

While the Raiders have decent talent at wide receiver, there is no top-tier receiver on the roster. The Raiders have the likes of veteran receivers Tyrell Williams and Nelson Agholor who have been career number 2 receivers. The Raiders also drafted Hunter Renfrow last year out of Clemson who was solid for them, but he likely won’t be a top-tier receiver.

With this receiver group, Ruggs should be able to get plenty of playing time, the only question is regarding Derek Carr and his willingness to throw the ball down the field. If Carr does somehow manage to break his tendency of throwing short, Ruggs will have a good chance at succeeding in his rookie year, however, being that this upcoming year will be Carr’s 7th year in the NFL, it will be unlikely that he breaks his short throw tendency.

While Ruggs has to worry about his QB situation, the same can not be said for the situation that CeeDee Lamb was put in. Lamb ended up getting picked five picks later than Lamb, ending up with Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.

CeeDee Lamb ended up in a better situation in terms of the QB and offensive system around him with Dallas. In the way of QB, the Cowboys are led by Dak Prescott who quietly had a quality year last season. Last season, Prescott finished with the 2nd highest PFF grade of his career with an 80.1 grade. In terms of coaching, Lamb will get the benefit of working with a pair of analytical based coaches.

The Cowboys recently parted ways with long time head coach Jason Garrett, and decided to hire former Packers coach Mike McCarthy to replace him. While McCarthy will likely be a better coach than Garrett, the true offensive masterminding will come from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Moore was a major reason for the Cowboys offensive success last year, mainly due to his analytical usage. Hayden Winks of RotoWorld ranked the analytics usage of each team, and the Cowboys finished 8th in the rankings.

While Henry Ruggs III had the benefit of not having top-tier receivers on his team, the same can’t quite be said for Lamb. The Cowboys have a quality young receiver in Michael Gallup, and an elite receiver in Amari Cooper. With the Cowboys, Cooper has shown to be one of the best route runners in the NFL and finished with an 84.1 PFF grade last season. While Lamb will likely still get a good amount of snaps with Dallas, he will be dealing with harder competition in terms of targets, compared to Ruggs.

Ultimately, Lamb appears primed to have the better rookie year between the two receivers. While both receivers are extremely close in terms of talent, Lamb has the great benefit of playing with a quality QB in Dak Prescott, as well as being coached by two quality coaches in Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore.

Lamb will also have the benefit of playing within the NFC East, while Ruggs is playing in the AFC West. The AFC West has the Denver Broncos who improved greatly this off-season with the additions of Jurrell Casey as well as A.J Bouye, the Los Angeles Chargers who added an elite cornerback in Chris Harris Jr., and the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Meanwhile, Lamb will have the benefit of playing against weaker defenses in the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants.

Ultimately, the benefits of playing in a weak defensive division, an analytical coaching staff, and a more than quality QB will allow Lamb to have a quality first season in the NFL, and might allow him to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.