3 NFL Over/Under Projections That Are Too Risky To Touch

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Sportsbook has released their over/under win totals for the 2024 NFL campaign, and we have already gone over which teams were overrated and which teams were underrated.

But how about the over/unders that are too volatile and shouldn’t even be touched?

There are a handful of clubs that have been tabbed with very risky over/under projections for next season, and a few of them really stand out.

Here are three teams with really iffy over/unders.

New York Jets (9.5)

I actually really like the Jets and think they can be a very good team next season.

However, their over/under win total is very high-risk due to the fact that they will be depending on a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers who is coming off of a torn Achilles.

If Rodgers is even close to the player he was before going to New York, then New York has a great shot of not only going over 9.5, but of winning 11 games.

The Jets shored up their offensive line, they added another weapon behind Garrett Wilson in Mike Williams, and they were already very good defensively.

But New York is relying an awful lot on guys coming off major injuries.

Not just Rodgers, but Williams is recovering from a torn ACL he suffered three games into last season with the Los Angeles Chargers, so there is a chance he isn’t right early on in the year, either.

The upside here is undoubtable. Remember: Gang Green won seven games in 2023 with Zach Wilson manning the quarterback position, so if Rodgers is healthy, the Jets should be able to win 10 games.

New York could be a playoff contender, or it could fall flat if Rodgers’ health fails. That’s what makes the Jets such a dangerous team to touch at 9.5.

Indianapolis Colts (8.5)

The Colts went 9-8 this past season, but that was with Gardner Minshew under center for most of the year.

Going into 2024, Indianapolis will be getting Anthony Richardson back after he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery following a Week 4 injury in 2023.

There is no question about Richardson’s raw talent. He’s an amazing prospect. But will he be 100 percent, and how rough will his growing pains be?

It’s also important to note that the Colts didn’t really improve in free agency. They re-signed wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., which was huge, but they didn’t add any significant pieces in spite of entering the offseason with ample cap room.

Of course, Indy can still load up in the NFL Draft, but putting all of your eggs in the rookie basket is never an advisable idea given how much of a crapshoot the draft can be as a whole.

There is a chance that Richardson comes in and lights it up. He is an athletic freak with incredible arm strength. He also has a solid receiving corps at his disposal in Pittman, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. But there is an equal chance that he struggles at different points of the year. More than likely, he will be inconsistent, which will make finishing above .500 tough.

Additionally, the Colts aren’t very good defensively. They finished 24th in defense this past year, and again, they haven’t really improved in that area this offseason.

Indianapolis can really go either way in 2024. It definitely has a decently high ceiling given Richardson’s potential, but it can also swing the other way and win six or seven games. That’s why the over/under of 8.5 appears daunting.

Miami Dolphins (10.5)

The Dolphins were one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL over the first half of 2023, but as the season progressed, teams started putting the clamps on Miami.

Sure, the Dolphins are still very lethal offensively with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in their receiving corps, but questions about Miami’s ability to beat good teams remain. It went just 1-6 against teams with winning records this past year.

The Dolphins also lost some key defensive players in free agency. Christian Wilkins, Andrew Van Ginkel, Brandon Jones and Raekwon Davis all departed, and they also cut long-time cornerback Xavien Howard.

Miami was able to somewhat rebound by signing safety Jordan Poyer, edge rusher Shaq Barrett and cornerback Kendall Fuller, but how those guys blend with the Dolphins’ defense is to be determined. And seriously, the loss of Wilkins cannot be understated. He was dominant in 2023.

Is this really an 11-win team again? It’s tough to say, which is what makes the 10.5 over/under so precarious. The Dolphins could win the AFC East, or they could finish in third place.

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