3 NFL Teams That Seem Underrated In Over/Under Projections

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Sportsbook released its over/under win totals for all 32 NFL teams this week, and some of the projections seem a little strange.

The Kansas City Chiefs coming in at 11.5 is hardly surprising, but there are other teams who are either being very undervalued or very overrated.

For now, let’s stick with a few teams who were probably a bit disrespected by DraftKings.

Here are some clubs who are great candidates to hit the over on their over/unders heading into 2024.

Tennessee Titans (5.5)

This one is really puzzling.

The Titans won five games this past year, and that was before a free-agent shopping spree that saw then land big names like wide receiver Calvin Ridley, running back Tony Pollard, center Lloyd Cushenberry and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. They also swung a trade to acquire top-flight cornerback L’Jarius Sneed from the Kansas City Chiefs.

Yes, Tennessee lost Derrick Henry, but Henry is clearly on the decline anyway, and while Pollard had a rather disappointing year with the Dallas Cowboys in 2023, he may very well represent a better option than Henry next season due to his younger age and far less mileage.

It’s not like the Titans play in a division with a bunch of behemoths, either. Yes, the AFC South is competitive, but it’s not exactly the AFC North. The Houston Texans are clearly the cream of the crop, but the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts are both infinitely beatable.

The duo of Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins in the aerial attack could end up being really impressive, and the defense should be improved with some of the additions Tennessee made.

Of course, the biggest question is Will Levis, who will be entering his first full season as the Titans’ starting quarterback. But is that enough to put the Titans’ over/under at 5.5? I think they deserve more respect than that.

If Levis is even decent in 2024, Tennessee could make things interesting in the division.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5)

The Steelers’ over/under started out at 7.5, which seemed like absolute insanity. It was then moved to 8.5, which still seems low.

Pittsburgh has not posted a losing season since 2003. That means if the Steelers go under their 8.5 line, they would log their first losing campaign in over 20 years.

Given that Pittsburgh just went 10-7 featuring Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback and just signed Russell Wilson to man the position for 2024, the Steelers seem like a pretty great over to take.

Yes, Pittsburgh traded wide receiver Diontae Johnson, but it still has George Pickens, a couple of nice running backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and a solid tight end in Pat Freiermuth.

Obviously, the Steelers’ 2024 campaign largely rides on what Wilson does. If he can build upon his decent final season with the Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh should be in good shape. If he looks anything like he did in 2022 when he threw 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, then the Steelers could be in some trouble.

But even if Wilson falters, let’s remember that Pittsburgh also traded for Justin Fields, so it could then insert him under center and see if he is able to spark the team.

The Steelers play in a very tough division, so that’s something against them. It’s also important to note that Joe Burrow will be back for the Cincinnati Bengals, and one can argue that if he didn’t go down with the wrist injury midway through this past season, Pittsburgh wouldn’t have made the playoffs.

But it just seems hard to imagine the Steelers having their first losing year in over two decades.

Cleveland Browns (8.5)

Much like the Steelers, the Browns were able to win 11 games and make the playoffs this past year in spite of incredible instability at quarterback.

As a matter of fact, Cleveland employed five signal-callers in 2023, ending the season with the resurgent Joe Flacco leading the Browns to a 4-1 record in his five regular-season starts.

Deshaun Watson will be returning after shoulder surgery, and while he is a major wild card, you’re going to have a hard time selling me on him being a worse option than 39-year-old Flacco or PJ Walker.

The Browns added a key wide receiver in Jerry Jeudy, and while Jeudy was largely a disappointment for the Denver Broncos, he will join a suddenly deep receiving corps that includes Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore. Jeudy should be able to excel in that role.

We also know that Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL, so couple that with a potentially improved offense in 2024, and the Browns should be contenders yet again in the AFC.

Yes, Cleveland plays in the AFC North, where every team finished above .500 this past season. But with the defense still in tact and an upgrade coming in at quarterback, it just seems like the Browns are a club that should absolutely finish with a winning record next year.

How Watson recovers from the shoulder injury will clearly be the biggest question for Cleveland heading into 2024, and it’s not like he has lit it up for the Browns even when he has been healthy.

The thought here is that the former Houston Texans star is able to enjoy a full season and plays his best football since 2020.

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