3 NFL Teams That Seem Overrated In Over/Under Projections

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Sportsbook released their over/under win totals for all 32 NFL teams, and while most of them seem pretty on the money, there are a few outliers.

Obviously, there are reasons why the over/unders are the way they are. But, that doesn’t mean some of them aren’t worth monitoring.

Earlier, we went over some teams that seemed undervalued in the projections. Now, it’s time to examine some teams who may be a bit overrated.

Here are three of them.

Atlanta Falcons (10.5)

I guess the oddsmakers really like the Kirk Cousins addition for Atlanta.

The question is, what type of Cousins are we going to see in 2024?

Keep in mind that he will be 36 years old at the start of next season and is coming off of a torn Achilles, so we have no idea if Cousins will look the same.

Also, the Falcons’ weapons are a bit questionable, particularly in the receiving corps.

Yes, Atlanta has Drake London, but beyond him, there aren’t really any proven options. Darnell Mooney had a 1,000-yard campaign three years ago, but the last two seasons, he failed to even crack 500 yards with the Chicago Bears. Rondale Moore was a major disappointment in Arizona.

Of course, Atlanta has running back Bijan Robinson, who could end up being one of the top all-purpose guys in the NFL next season, and it is entirely possible that one of Mooney or Moore could break out if Cousins is healthy. But there are too many variables to feel comfortable with the Falcons at 10.5.

Think about it: Atlanta was given the same over/under projection as teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. It seems hard to fathom that the Falcons are in that class.

Granted, Atlanta does play in the weak NFC South division, but regardless, it’s going to take a herculean effort from Cousins to get this team to 11 wins.

Washington Commanders (7.5)

The Commanders went 4-13 in 2023 and ended the season losing nine straight games. They also don’t know who their quarterback will be next year (probably either Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels). Plus, outside of running back Austin Ekeler, who appears to be declining, Washington didn’t really add any weapons.

Let’s not even get into the defense, which was the worst in the NFL this past year.

So, why is the Commanders’ over/under at 7.5 wins? It doesn’t seem to make much sense, particularly in an NFC East that features the Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, not to mention a New York Giants club that Washington can’t seem to beat.

Unless Maye or Daniels pulls a C.J. Stroud in 2024, the Commanders could very well be one of the worst teams in the league again next season.

There isn’t even much more to add here. Washington does not have elite talent on either side of the ball, and it would not be surprising to see the club finish with around five wins again.

Los Angeles Chargers (8.5)

The Chargers went 5-12 this past season, and while that may be a bit misleading given that Justin Herbert missed the last four games, it seems hard to grasp them going above .500 in 2024.

Think about it: they lost three of their top offensive weapons in wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and the aforementioned Ekeler. Who is their No. 1 receiver right now? Joshua Palmer?

Los Angeles may very well take a receiver with the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft next month, but that doesn’t mean the Bolts will have anyone truly proven in their receiving corps.

Plus, LA’s defense was horrendous last year, and it wasn’t really able to do much to address it in free agency due to financial constraints.

The good news is that the Chargers were able to keep both Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa on restructured deals, and they are hoping Bosa can actually stay healthy in 2024.

But again, Los Angeles didn’t add anyone of significance.

I will say that the Chargers don’t exactly play in a tough division. Yes, the AFC West does feature the Kansas City Chiefs, but it also contains a couple of rebuilding clubs in the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. So, Los Angeles could pick up a few wins there.

Even taking that into consideration, nine wins sounds like a lot for a Chargers team that doesn’t have a ton of elite talent outside of Herbert, especially on offense.

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