The Las Vegas Raiders made Henry Ruggs III the first wide receiver off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft (12th overall). Missing a couple early games with injuries kept him from getting traction, and he finished with 26 catches for 452 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games.
For the most part, Nelson Agholor was what Ruggs was supposed to be for the Raiders last year. Aghlor had rapport with Derek Carr, on his way to averaging 18.7 yards per catch with eight touchdowns. There’s a lingering narrative that Carr won’t throw deep often enough. But last year, Pro Football Focus graded him top-5 in on-target rate for 20-plus yards throws, fourth in deep ball yards and third in adjusted completion percentage on deep pass attempts.
Agholor and his 82 targets (second on the team) departed for the New England Patriots in free agency. But rather than keep the door wide open for Ruggs to step into a bigger role, the Raiders signed John Brown to essentially replace Agholor.
Ruggs averaged 17.4 yards per catch as a rookie, and 5.6 yards after the catch. He also had nine carries. But the Raiders need to find ways to get the ball in his hands closer to the line of scrimmage. The cause of that issue last year could be two-fold. Ruggs probably needs more polish as a route runner, and Carr may not have trusted him to be at the right spot on shorter routes. Opposing corners respected Ruggs’ 4.2-4.3 speed, with an average of 7.0 yards of cushion as a rookie. That was tied for fifth-highest/most in the league, according to Next Gen Stats. Now he has to take advantage of that cushion as a more refined all-around receiver.
As cited by The Athletic, the Raiders targeted their wide receivers a league-low 43.4 percent of the time last year. Tight end Darren Waller is clearly their No. 1 receiver. The additions of Brown and Willie Snead in free agency has created a clogged depth chart at wide receiver. And that group will battle for target scraps (relatively speaking).
Henry Ruggs III 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Ruggs is an ideal option in best-ball fantasy leagues, so you get the big games he may have. But then you’ll avoid the one or two-catch duds that still feel inevitable looking to his second season.
In more traditional re-draft formats, it feels like Ruggs won’t be drafted outside the deepest leagues. But according to Fantasy Football Calculator (albeit here on May 9), he’s coming in at WR48 (pick 10.10) in 12-team full PPR. In 12-team standard, the correction comes (WR63, pick 12.10).
Ruggs has value in dynasty leagues. That said, 2021 feels like a pivotal year for his value in that format. Members of his class of wide receivers will be joined by this year’s rookies. In combination, he’ll get lapped as a dynasty prospect if he doesn’t at least show signs of putting it together.
Going back to re-draft leagues for 2021, here’s the core fantasy reality on Ruggs. He’s an interesting flier in WR4/WR5 range (10-12th round?) of a 12-team league draft. But any big expectations are bound to be unfulfilled.
