Repeat? Or Regress?

As naturally expected, Jackson’s 176 rushing attempts befit a running back’s workload and set a quarterback record for carries. He has said he plans to run less this year, which isn’t necessarily a death knell to his fantasy upside but he will probably never get to 1,200 yards on the ground again.

As noted by JJ Zachariason of numberFire, Jackson’s 9.0 percent touchdown rate (401 pass attempts) last year was an outlier. Only one other quarterback (Peyton Manning-9.9 percent in 2004) has had a better touchdown rate with at least 300 pass attempts. In 2011, Aaron Rodgers also had a 9.0 percent touchdown rate.

Per Zachariason, among 13 quarterback seasons with a touchdown rate of 8.0 percent or higher there was an average 3.0 percent drop the next season.

Drop Jackson’s touchdown rate to 6.0 percent last year, and he would have had 24 touchdown passes. That’s actually easy math-take away one-third of his touchdown rate, and with it one-third of his touchdown passes are gone.

The Ravens scored 58 offensive touchdowns last year, which ties them for the seventh-most touchdowns in a single season from a team since 2011. The other 11 teams all had notable scoring drop-offs the following season.

Jackson has a good chance to still be a top-five fantasy signal caller this year, and that would be a step back. And now with an ADP in the second round, his days as a value in drafts are done for awhile.

Running less, even a little bit. Passing efficiency that will not be repeated. Regression is simply going to happen for Jackson this year, with as close to 100 percent certainty as there can be.