Do Any Washington RBs Have Fantasy Value?
After Guice suffered a torn ACL as a rookie in the 2018 preseason, Washington signed Adrian Peterson. Driven by 251 carries (fifth-most in the league), he topped 1,000 yards on the ground (1,042; 4.2 yards per carry) with eight total touchdowns (seven rushing). In standard fantasy scoring, he finished as RB16.
In 15 games last year, Peterson averaged 4.3 yards per carry (211 carries for 898 yards, 5 touchdowns). He’s the most direct beneficiary of Guice being gone, with the early down role now his alone looking to Week 1.
But where Peterson falls short as a pass catcher, rookie Antonio Gibson is in line to step in. A multi-faceted (if underused) weapon in college at Memphis, Gibson already had a path to immediate fantasy relevance in PPR leagues. With a share of early down work available now, Gibson is firmly established with the highest fantasy upside in the Washington backfield.
This offseason, Washington signed two veteran backs with a specific and narrow skill set.
Peyton Barber is a replacement level runner (3.1 yards per carry with Tampa Bay last year, 3.6 yards per carry for his career). He may siphon some early down work from the 35-year old Peterson. But he’ll need an injury to Peterson to be even be on the periphery of the fantasy radar.
J.D. McKissic had 72 touches for the Detroit Lions last year-38 carries and 34 receptions. Any playing time he gets will be centered on passing downs Unless Gibson is injured or falls flat on his face, there’s not a good path to production.
The man who should not be forgotten about is Bryce Love. The 2017 Heisman Trophy runner-up topped 2,000 rushing yards for Stanford that year, then had a disappointing senior season in 2018 ended by a torn right ACL. He missed his entire rookie season after Washington drafted him in the fourth round, but he has passed a physical recently. How he fits into the mix this year is murky at best. But Love is a dynasty prospect, well worth consideration at the bottom of his potential value in that format.
In non-PPR leagues, Peterson’s ADP is sure to rise from RB56 (12-team leagues, via Fantasy Football Calculator). He should be drafted as no more than a RB3 in standard scoring, and even that feels a shade optimistic.
In full PPR (12-team leagues), Gibson’s ADP is currently RB47 (pick 10.02). He’s sure to get a bump with Guice out of the picture, likely edging into the ninth round (PPR) fairly quickly. While Gibson has been widely regarded as a fantasy sleeper, any significant bump in his ADP would push him into overvalued territory. Tread lightly on that upside/overvalued line.
Love, Barber and McKissic are only draftable in very deep leagues right now, and even that’s a reach. If an injury happens during camp or one of them finds a way to make some hay (looking at Love), then a late-round flier in more typical-sized leagues becomes palatable.
To answer the question from the title, no, you should not target Peterson in a fantasy football draft. There are worse things then ending up with him as a RB3/RB4 in any scoring format. But that’s it-you’ll “end up” with him, clicking the button or calling his name while crossing your fingers for the best possible outcome.
Frankly, wholeheartedly targeting any Washington back in a fantasy draft was and still is unsound strategy. There’s solid production to be had, but it being divided in multiple ways depending on situation, game script, etc. turns unpredictable into full-on frustrating. Guice was the most intriguing of all of them, and that baton has been passed clearly to Gibson.
If you must target a Washington running back, among the two who are draftable, let it be Gibson. As long as it’s proper value, no earlier than the back end of the eighth round in a PPR league, of course.
