With the first pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals selected LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow came in with a lot of fanfare, winning the 2020 Heisman Trophy and leading LSU to a championship.
The pressure was on right from the start, but Burrow held his own. The wins weren’t there, as the Bengals went 2-7-1 in his 10 starts, but there was some solid production. He completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,688 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in a Week 11 matchup with the Washington Football Team. That began a long rehab process, but Burrow has attacked it relentlessly and is on track to be under center Week 1 for Cincinnati.
Heading into Year 2 ready to go, what can the Bengals expect from their franchise quarterback in 2021? They can expect a big breakout campaign.
The second-year jump for quarterbacks is real. A study was done by Football Outsiders that showed the most improvement for a quarterback comes from Year 1 to Year 2 using defense adjusted yards above replacement. A 136 DYAR improvement is achieved between the first and second years. There is no other year that produces an increase of over 50 yards.
The 33rd Team did a study of their own and their findings were similar; second-year quarterbacks make the biggest jump. They used first-round quarterbacks selected between 2010-2019 for their study, 30 in all, and the results were staggering.
63.3% of the quarterbacks improved their completion percentage in their second year.
63.3% of the quarterbacks improved their yards per game in their second season.
60% of the quarterbacks improved their touchdowns per game in their second year.
70% of the quarterbacks improved their interceptions per game in their second season.
With how talented and hard-working that Burrow is, there is no reason to believe he won’t be the next player to achieve this kind of statistical jump. In addition to all of his rehab this past offseason, Burrow also tweaked his throwing mechanics to improve his performance in 2021.
During his rookie season, Burrow struggled mightily with the deep ball. He completed 9-of-46 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 air yards, compiling 293 yards and one touchdown. His percentages were worst among quarterbacks with at least 40 attempts last season. That is something he wants to change this upcoming season.
There is hope that the mechanics tweak will help improve those numbers. The addition of his LSU teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, should also help. Cincinnati selected Chase with the sixth pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, reuniting the former Tigers once again.
Burrow has a talented group of pass-catchers in Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Joe Mixon is going to lead the backfield. If the offensive line can play better, the sky is the limit for Burrow in his second season in the NFL.
