3. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

Among Patriots’ wide receivers last year, it was Edelman and nothing else. He was fourth in the league with 153 targets, which yielded 100 catches, 1,117 yards, six touchdowns and a finish as WR7 in full PPR. The next three most targeted wide receivers for New England did not reach his total in targets, catches or yards, and one of them (Phillip Dorsett) is gone.

All of the above leaves aside the biggest elephant in the room. Edelman will have a new quarterback, with Tom Brady leaving and Jarrett Stidham replacing him barring something unforeseen. Brady and Edelman had years of chemistry to fall back on, and now Edelman has to start back at square one without the benefit of typical offseason work. It also seems natural that the Patriots will become a more run-heavy offense while Stidham gets acclimated. N’Keal Harry is also in line for a bigger role, after a losing a chunk of his rookie season to injury.

Pure target share gives Edelman a solid fantasy floor this year. But where is that floor? WR2? WR3? He has also never had more than seven touchdowns in a season, so scoring will not be a saving grace if his catch total drops in a notable way. Say finishes with 75 catches, a nice, round 25 percent drop from 2019. Larry Fitzgerald had that catch total last year, with 804 yards and four touchdowns, and he was WR35 in full PPR.

Edelman will not be a WR1 or anything close to it in fantasy this year, in any scoring format. So that means a step back is coming, it’s just a matter of how far back that step is. But at his current ADP, WR36 in 12-team full PPR, the risk is lessened.