After falling short of expectations in 2019, the Cleveland Browns and Baker Mayfield rebounded nicely last year with an 11-5 record. They also won a playoff game, upsetting the rival Steelers before losing narrowly to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round.
Mayfield had efficient success in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, completing just shy of 63 percent of his passes for over 3,500 yards with a touchdown-to-interception rate more than 3:1 (26 touchdowns and eight interceptions). The Browns had the league’s third-best rushing attack (148.4 yards per game), which helped them survive Odell Beckham Jr. missing nine games.
The Browns found the formula to win, and that formula won’t change much in 2021. But with that, here three incredibly early bold predictions for Mayfield in 2021.
3 super early bold predictions for Baker Mayfield in 2021
3. 35 Touchdown Passes
In 2020, Mayfield had the 17th-most pass attempts in the league (486; 30.4 per game) with the 13th-best touchdown rate (5.3 percent). Remove a three-game midseason stretch, with two home games affected by weather, and his attempts per game climbs to 32.2 with a touchdown rate of 6.2 over his other 13 games.
Let’s give Mayfield 540-550 pass attempts next season, which should put him somewhere around top-10 in the league. A little bump in touchdown rate over his 13-game sample last year, to 6.4 percent, puts him at 35 touchdown passes.
2. Over 4,000 Passing Yards
To top 4,000 passing yards in 2021, Mayfield will have to average a little over 31 more passing yards per game than he did in 2020. It’s not as much of a stretch as you might think.
1. Top-12 Fantasy Quarterback
Mayfield finished as QB17 in fantasy last year. During the aforementioned three-game weather-affected stretch (Week 8, Week 10, Week 11; bye in Week 9), he totaled 20.22 fantasy points (6.75 per game). In his other 13 games, he averaged 18.1 fantasy points per game.
From Week 12-Week 17 last year, Mayfield was a top-10 fantasy quarterback (QB8; 20.52 fantasy points per game). He had at least 285 passing yards in four straight games (Week 13-16), with a multi-passing touchdown game the week prior. He helped earn some playoff berths and win some fantasy playoff matchups during that stretch.
96 of Mayfield’s 165 rushing yards last year came in just three games. So it’s easy to see a bit more (balance and total) coming there in 2021, with two or three touchdowns on the ground. It all adds up a starting-caliber quarterback for fantasy owners, and one that may come at a value for those who like to wait to draft the position.
