His Re-Injury Risk Is High, But His Potential Is Higher
According to Sports Injury Predictor, the likelihood of Cam Newton re-injuring either his shoulder or foot is at an astronomical 45%. Think of all of the previous rushing QBs in league history that have flamed out early because of their injury woes, and you might start to get worried about Newton’s chances surviving the season.
However, Newton will now be protected by a stronger and more effective offensive line than the turnstiles he had in Carolina. According to Pro Football Focus, New England has the 10th highest graded offensive line in the league whereas Carolina had the 18th best before trading away their only Pro-Bowler in Trai Turner.
The Patriots also spent two draft picks reinforcing their line, and they retain star guards Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason, who placed 5th and 9th at their position out of 83 qualified players, respectively. When Cam is protected adequately and given room to run, he is an elite fantasy QB and is obviously significantly more accurate than when facing pressure.
In the 2018 games he played in before the six-game losing streak and ended his season, Newton was passing with 68.5% accuracy, had a 17:5 touchdown to interception ratio, and faced a career-low 5.8% sack rate.
It might take Newton a few games for him to come back to form, especially considering the strange offseason the entire NFL is experiencing, but when he hits his stride it will be remarkable to watch. He should be expected to run less, heavily utilize short passes to the running backs, and look for Julian Edelman early and often.
A Pro-Bowl appearance and being the recipient of the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year Award should not be out of the question, but a trip to the playoffs would be the icing on the cake.
