Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey will regress towards the mean in 2020

A common adage in football is that players will almost always regress towards the mean. This works in both directions. A superstar has a rough season, chances are they bounce back and produce similar to career averages the next year. A player has an out of this world season, chances are they regress and produce similar to career averages the next year.

In the case of Christian McCaffrey, it would be almost unheard of for a player to be able to have the level of success he enjoyed in 2019 on a consistent basis. Defenses are more likely to do everything they can to slow him down. Coordinators will have had an entire year’s worth of film to identify weaknesses and pitfalls in his game. While his stats will probably drop in 2020, that doesn’t mean he will become an irrelevant player.

McCaffrey is a special player. He showed what he was capable of in 2018 when he rushed for 1,098 yards to go along with 867 receiving yards. This is still incredible production and a sign that he is going to stay a great player for a long time.

The mostly likely statistical prediction for McCaffrey is somewhere in between is 2019 and 2018 years. 1,150 yards of rushing seems likely for a running back that will relied upon heavily in Carolina as they break in a new quarterback. Closer to 8 rushing touchdowns would also regress closer to the mean. Hauling in around 900 receiving yards also seems more likely as defenses really try to limit the amount of damage he creates.

This kind of production would still place him as one of the best running backs in the NFL and would make him a must have on any fantasy football team.