2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen made some progress as a passer last year, and he should take another step in his third season. But he’s still a work in progress and a bit of an unpolished whirling dervish, as his rushing production (510 yards and nine touchdowns) pushed him to a finish as QB6 in fantasy last year.

The range in fantasy production for quarterbacks is not wide on a percentage basis, and strength of schedule is a flimsy metric to strictly rely on. But it’s still notable that Pro Football Focus has given Allen the second-worst overall schedule for a quarterback this year, and the worst schedule for a quarterback from Week 14-16. The Bills’ running backs and wide receivers also have among the worst schedules in the league via PFF.

Counting the playoff game for the Bills, Allen topped 250 passing yards five times all of last season (three times after at Week 6 bye). If the Bills offense is in for a tough road, and it appears it is, Allen will naturally regress some along with it. The range of outcomes for him is the widest on this list.